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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 9

Denver Broncos 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(:05) 8-B.McManus 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 9, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model