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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 33

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 8-B.McManus 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.10 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.87 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model