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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 13 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 6-D.Hopkins 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +1.21 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.62 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model