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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 16 at the 39

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 16-J.Scott punts 18 yards to DEN 21, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.73 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 39, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP