Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Denver Broncos 3

(5:42) 16-J.Scott punts 52 yards to DEN 14, Center-47-J.Harris. 12-M.Washington MUFFS catch, touched at DEN 15, and recovers at DEN 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.32 EP
53% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model