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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 13 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 17-C.Waitman punts 58 yards to LAC 9, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 1-D.Carter to LAC 28 for 19 yards (48-M.Fraboni).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP