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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Sunday 2022-10-16 · 20:20 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

DAL
41.7%
PHI
58.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DAL 23
–
PHI 26
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

DAL

Rico Dowdle RB Out Ankle
CeeDee Lamb WR Questionable Hip
Jason Peters T Questionable Chest
Dak Prescott QB Questionable right Thumb

PHI

Josh Jobe CB Questionable Shoulder
Janarius Robinson DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 17
–
PHI 26

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 15:00 TD PHI (15:00) 26-M.Sanders left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 6
  • Q2 10:47 TD PHI (10:47) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 13
  • Q2 07:58 FG PHI (7:58) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. DAL 0 – PHI 17
  • Q2 01:51 FG PHI (1:51) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. DAL 0 – PHI 20
  • Q2 00:33 FG DAL (:33) 19-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 3 – PHI 20
  • Q3 08:26 TD DAL (8:26) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 9 – PHI 20
  • Q4 14:45 TD DAL (14:45) 68-M.Farniok reported in as eligible. 10-C.Rush pass short right to 87-J.Ferguson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – PHI 20
  • Q4 07:06 TD PHI (7:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 6-D.Smith for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DAL-7-T.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 1 yard, enforced between downs. DAL 17 – PHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:24) 5-B.Anger punts 60 yards to PHI 15, Center-45-M.Overton. 18-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 14 yards (87-J.Ferguson).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 8 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (10:56) 8-A.Siposs punts 44 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 24 for 12 yards (89-J.Stoll).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (7:40) 5-B.Anger punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 63%

    (3:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at DAL 27 for 11 yards (28-M.Hooker).

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:30) (No Huddle) 10-C.Rush pass incomplete short right to 89-P.Hendershot (24-J.Bradberry).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 74%

    (7:58) 4-J.Elliott 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 6 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 94%

    (1:51) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 10 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (:33) 19-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to DAL 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 21 for 15 yards (3-Z.Pascal).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 59 yards to DAL 5, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 39 for 34 yards (8-A.Siposs). PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 14.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 13 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 53%

    (2:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 30 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 10 at the 41 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 55%

    (1:13) 19-B.Maher 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.