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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 42

Philadelphia Eagles 26 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 30 yards to DAL 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.37 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -1.80 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP