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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 38

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(3:28) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 11-A.Brown pushed ob at DAL 27 for 11 yards (28-M.Hooker).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 38, worth -1.74 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model