4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(:33) 19-B.Maher 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model