Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 64

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(6:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 59 yards to DAL 5, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 39 for 34 yards (8-A.Siposs). PENALTY on DAL-1-K.Joseph, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at DAL 14.

The Three Options

GO -1.85 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.01 EP
74% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model