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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 26

What Actually Happened

(1:13) 19-B.Maher 59 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.12 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model