Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 60

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 3

(12:59) 8-A.Siposs punts 54 yards to DAL 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 9-K.Turpin pushed ob at DAL 21 for 15 yards (3-Z.Pascal).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.96 EP
63% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 60, worth -3.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model