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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 16

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 4-J.Elliott 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.03 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 26, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model