SF @ CAR — 4th & Data

← Home

Away

San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan

Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule

Sunday 2022-10-09 · 16:05 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

56.7%

CAR

43.3%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CAR offense: -0.186 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
Baker Mayfield (CAR): -0.120 EPA/dropback in prior starts
SF offense: -0.049 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
SF defense: -0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
CAR defense: +0.029 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 24

–

CAR 21

Projected margin: SF by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

SF

Arik Armstead DE Out Foot

Tyrion Davis-Price RB Out Ankle

Javon Kinlaw DT Out Knee

Tyler Kroft TE Out Knee

Colton McKivitz T Out Knee

Tarvarius Moore S Out Hamstring

Trent Williams T Out Ankle

CAR

Laviska Shenault WR Out Hamstring

Stephen Sullivan TE Out Back

Stantley Thomas-Oliver CB Out Thigh

Xavier Woods S Questionable Hamstring

Marquis Haynes DE Questionable Knee

Frankie Luvu LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 37

–

CAR 15

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:47 TD SF (11:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 28-T.Coleman for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – CAR 0
Q2 13:01 FG SF (13:01) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – CAR 0
Q2 08:04 FG CAR (8:04) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. SF 10 – CAR 3
Q2 00:55 TD SF (:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left intended for 22-C.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 4-E.Moseley at CAR 41. 4-E.Moseley for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – CAR 3
Q3 12:03 TD CAR (12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs. SF 17 – CAR 9
Q3 06:37 TD SF (6:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – CAR 9
Q3 03:44 FG CAR (3:44) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. SF 24 – CAR 12
Q4 12:36 TD SF (12:36) 22-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 30 – CAR 12
Q4 06:55 FG CAR (6:55) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker. SF 30 – CAR 15
Q4 03:20 TD SF (3:20) 28-T.Coleman left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 36 – CAR 15

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 75

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 69%

(10:07) 10-J.Hekker punts 67 yards to SF 8, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-R.McCloud to SF 15 for 7 yards (40-B.Smith; 34-S.Chandler).
Q1 CAR 4th & 1 at the 34

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 70%

(4:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 31 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).
Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 23

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 51% p(FG) 88%

(2:15) 4-E.Pineiro 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q2 SF 4th & 20 at the 31

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 21% p(FG) 76%

(13:01) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.
Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

(8:04) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 45

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43% p(FG) 42%

(5:42) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 38 yards to CAR 7, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-26-S.Womack.
Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 87

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48%

(4:10) 10-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SF 46, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.
Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

(1:48) 9-R.Gould 43 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-Y.Gross-Matos), Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky, RECOVERED by CAR-7-S.Thompson at CAR 21. 7-S.Thompson to CAR 22 for 1 yard (74-S.Burford). FUMBLES (74-S.Burford), and recovers at CAR 22.
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67%

(:11) 10-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SF 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 3-R.McCloud to SF 15 for 1 yard (42-S.Franklin).
Q3 CAR 4th & 1 at the 19

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 92%

(12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs.
Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 19

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

(3:44) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP

p(convert) 42%

(10:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to CAR 38 for 8 yards (38-D.Lenoir).
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 16

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

(6:55) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.
Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 47 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 37%

(4:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.
Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 90 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.32 EP

p(convert) 34%

(4:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 3 for -7 yards (95-D.Jackson).
Q4 CAR 4th & 13 at the 30 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.57 EP

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 78%

(:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-P.Walker pass incomplete deep right to 2-D.Moore.