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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 4-E.Pineiro 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.52 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.21 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model