Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 70

Carolina Panthers 12 – San Francisco 49ers 30

(10:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to CAR 38 for 8 yards (38-D.Lenoir).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

What Happened

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.78 EP
58% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.64 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.39 EP