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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 15 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(4:12) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at CAR 3 for -7 yards (95-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.40 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 47, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.32 EP