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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 34

Carolina Panthers 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to SF 31 for 3 yards (54-F.Warner).

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.94 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.02 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model