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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 9 – San Francisco 49ers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 4-E.Pineiro 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.58 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model