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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 30 – Carolina Panthers 15

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 37 yards to CAR 10, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 12-S.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.80 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model