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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 16

Carolina Panthers 12 – San Francisco 49ers 30

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 4-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.95 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model