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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 19

Carolina Panthers 3 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 22-C.McCaffrey right end for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on SF-54-F.Warner, Low Block, 1 yard, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.94 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model