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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:01) 9-R.Gould 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.93 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model