4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
GB Away

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2022-09-25 · 16:25 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 1.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

GB
45.1%
TB
54.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.129 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • TB defense: -0.193 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • TB offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.121 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.207 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 23
–
TB 26
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

GB

Sammy Watkins WR Out Hamstring
Randall Cobb WR Questionable Illness
Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring
David Bakhtiari T Questionable Knee
Marcedes Lewis TE Questionable Groin

TB

Chris Godwin WR Out Hamstring
Akiem Hicks DT Out Foot
Cade Otton TE Doubtful Not injury related - personal matter
Donovan Smith T Doubtful Elbow
Russell Gage WR Questionable Hamstring
Leonard Fournette RB Questionable Hamstring
Julio Jones WR Questionable Knee
Breshad Perriman WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 14
–
TB 12

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:10 FG TB (9:10) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. GB 0 – TB 3
  • Q1 03:07 TD GB (3:07) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 87-R.Doubs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – TB 3
  • Q2 08:47 TD GB (8:47) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – TB 3
  • Q3 06:27 FG TB (6:27) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. GB 14 – TB 6
  • Q4 00:18 TD TB (:18) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 17-R.Gage for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – TB 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 51%

    (12:36) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 15-C.Beasley to GB 38 for 4 yards (29-R.Douglas).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 83%

    (9:10) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:41) 5-J.Camarda punts 44 yards to GB 29, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (6:11) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to GB 31, Center-97-Z.Triner. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 38 for 7 yards (41-K.Kieft).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 61%

    (:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to TB 13, Center-56-J.Coco. 1-J.Darden to TB 13 for no gain (20-R.Ford).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:57) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to TB 11, Center-56-J.Coco. 1-J.Darden to TB 21 for 10 yards (6-D.Leavitt; 40-T.Galeai).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 45%

    (10:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (9:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 62 yards to GB 31, Center-97-Z.Triner. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at 50 for 19 yards (22-K.Neal). PENALTY on GB-20-R.Ford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 45.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%

    (6:27) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to TB 11, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 13 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (:45) 5-J.Camarda punts 36 yards to GB 44, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-33-K.Young.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:24) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to TB 14, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 2 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:26) 5-J.Camarda punts 58 yards to GB 20, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (8:54) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 63 yards to TB 9, Center-56-J.Coco. 1-J.Darden ran ob at TB 25 for 16 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 19 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (6:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to GB 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 17 at the 49 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 33%

    (3:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to TB 11, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.