Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 19 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Green Bay Packers 14

(6:04) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to GB 14, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +2.94 EP
75% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model