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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 83

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:11) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to GB 31, Center-97-Z.Triner. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 38 for 7 yards (41-K.Kieft).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.81 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model