Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 55

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

(13:24) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to TB 14, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.84 EP
65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model