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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 65

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 52 yards to TB 13, Center-56-J.Coco. 1-J.Darden to TB 13 for no gain (20-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +0.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -2.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model