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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 44

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to TB 2, Center-56-J.Coco, downed by GB-25-K.Nixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.84 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP