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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 57

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to TB 11, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model