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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 93

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 5-J.Camarda punts 62 yards to GB 31, Center-97-Z.Triner. 8-Am.Rodgers ran ob at 50 for 19 yards (22-K.Neal). PENALTY on GB-20-R.Ford, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 45.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.74 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 51, worth -2.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model