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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 49

Green Bay Packers 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(3:11) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to TB 11, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 1-J.Darden.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.02 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.69 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model