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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 3-R.Succop 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model