BAL @ NYJ — 4th & Data

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HC John Harbaugh

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HC Robert Saleh

Sunday 2022-09-11 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.5 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL

47.3%

NYJ

52.7%

🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NYJ defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
NYJ offense: -0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
BAL offense: -0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
BAL defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Joe Flacco (NYJ) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

BAL 21

–

NYJ 23

Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Travis Jones DT Out Knee

Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Ankle

Marcus Peters CB Questionable Not injury related - resting player

J.K. Dobbins RB Questionable Knee

NYJ

Duane Brown T Out Shoulder

Zach Wilson QB Out Knee

George Fant T Questionable Knee

Justin Hardee CB Questionable Calf

Conor McDermott T Questionable Ankle

D.J. Reed CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 24

–

NYJ 9

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:19 FG BAL (3:19) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 3 – NYJ 0
Q2 03:51 TD BAL (3:51) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 13-D.Duvernay for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 9 – NYJ 0
Q2 00:28 FG NYJ (:28) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. BAL 10 – NYJ 3
Q3 07:20 TD BAL (7:20) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 13-D.Duvernay for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 16 – NYJ 3
Q3 02:14 TD BAL (2:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 7-R.Bateman for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – NYJ 3
Q4 01:04 TD NYJ (1:04) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 83-T.Conklin for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – NYJ 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(13:53) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to BAL 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 28 for 9 yards (42-T.Hennessy).
Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 51

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP

p(convert) 70% p(FG) 29%

(9:56) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 82

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(7:12) 7-B.Mann punts 48 yards to BAL 34, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q1 BAL 4th & 9 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(6:08) 11-J.Stout punts 48 yards to NYJ 17, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 6

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

(3:19) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 66

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP

p(convert) 72%

(2:00) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47%

(14:56) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-N.Moore. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 29 for 17 yards (53-D.Phillips).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

(10:55) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q2 BAL 4th & 12 at the 51

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

(8:08) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.
Q2 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(4:50) 7-B.Mann punts 41 yards to BAL 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 38 for 8 yards (34-J.Hardee).
Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41% p(FG) 84%

(:28) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
Q3 BAL 4th & 9 at the 64

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(12:45) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 44%

(10:30) 7-B.Mann punts 20 yards to NYJ 44, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.
Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 61

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP

p(convert) 60%

(4:48) 7-B.Mann punts 49 yards to BAL 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-26-B.Echols.
Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 62

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(10:15) 11-J.Stout punts 43 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-N.Moore. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 32 for 13 yards (26-G.Stone, 22-Da.Williams).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 28

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 67% p(FG) 82%

(7:32) 19-J.Flacco pass short right to 84-C.Davis to BAL 21 for 7 yards (23-K.Fuller).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 14

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 95%

(5:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore ran ob at BAL 10 for 4 yards (23-K.Fuller).
Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

(4:22) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass incomplete short left to 32-Mi.Carter.
Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 22 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.43 EP

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 90%

(1:18) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass deep right to 17-G.Wilson pushed ob at BAL 3 for 19 yards (14-K.Hamilton).