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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 64

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:53) 7-B.Mann punts 45 yards to BAL 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 28 for 9 yards (42-T.Hennessy).

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.31 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 22, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model