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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 27

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.55 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model