4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 64

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 11-J.Stout punts 64 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 64, worth -3.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 22, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model