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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 66

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 7-B.Mann punts 50 yards to BAL 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.14 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP