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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:08) 11-J.Stout punts 40 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.20 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 51, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model