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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 22

New York Jets 3 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(1:18) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass deep right to 17-G.Wilson pushed ob at BAL 3 for 19 yards (14-K.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +4.07 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 32, worth -0.82 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.43 EP