4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:19) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 6, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP