4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 27

New York Jets 0 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(:28) 6-G.Zuerlein 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.42 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 27, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +2.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model