4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 14

New York Jets 3 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(5:17) (Shotgun) 19-J.Flacco pass short left to 8-E.Moore ran ob at BAL 10 for 4 yards (23-K.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO +2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 24, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model