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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
Sunday 2022-01-09 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌨 Snow Spread -6.0 O/U 36.0

Win Probability

WAS
62.4%
NYG
37.6%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.237 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to WAS: Jake Fromm (NYG) -0.496 vs Taylor Heinicke (WAS) -0.074 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Jake Fromm in place of Mike Glennon)
  • WAS offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 22
–
NYG 18
Projected margin: WAS by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

WAS

Saahdiq Charles T Out Knee
Curtis Samuel WR Out Hamstring
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Out Concussion
Montez Sweat DE Out Not injury related - personal matter
Sammis Reyes TE Questionable Hamstring

NYG

Mike Glennon QB Out left Wrist
John Ross WR Out Knee
Kadarius Toney WR Out Shoulder
Cullen Gillaspia FB Questionable Knee
Will Hernandez G Questionable Ankle
Collin Johnson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 22
–
NYG 7

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:07 FG WAS (9:07) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NYG 0
  • Q2 00:03 FG WAS (:03) 3-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – NYG 0
  • Q3 03:48 TD WAS (3:48) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at NYG 30. 20-B.McCain for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – NYG 0
  • Q4 11:29 TD NYG (11:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle to 86-D.Slayton for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – NYG 6
  • Q4 06:34 TD WAS (6:34) 24-A.Gibson up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 18 – NYG 7
  • Q4 04:44 FG WAS (4:44) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 22 – NYG 7

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (9:07) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 76%

    (2:47) 81-A.Bachman right end to WAS 35 for -3 yards (52-J.Davis).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 44%

    (15:00) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to WAS 28, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to WAS 28 for no gain (31-K.Crossen).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:33) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to NYG 18, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 81-A.Bachman to NYG 34 for 16 yards (45-D.Harris).

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to WAS 23 for 3 yards (20-J.Love; 31-K.Crossen).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 8 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 64%

    (5:53) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NYG 3, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-11-C.Sims.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:21) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 46, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to NYG 46 for 8 yards (53-O.Ximines; 55-R.Ragland).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 39%

    (2:44) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (1:45) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to WAS 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to WAS 31 for 12 yards (39-E.Penny; 20-J.Love).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 87%

    (:03) 3-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 56 yards to WAS 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (7:34) 35-J.Williams right tackle to NYG 39 for 11 yards (45-J.Smith, 51-A.Ojulari).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 66%

    (5:53) 5-T.Way punts 23 yards to NYG 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short left to 26-S.Barkley pushed ob at WAS 40 for 11 yards (52-J.Davis).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 76%

    (12:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass short right to 19-K.Golladay ran ob at WAS 25 for 7 yards (29-K.Fuller) [93-Jon.Allen].

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (4:44) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 17 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (4:17) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to WAS 33, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 1-D.Carter. PENALTY on NYG-47-C.Brown, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 33.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%

    (2:07) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to end zone, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 3 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 94%

    (:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle intended for 84-D.Sills INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at WAS 0. 20-B.McCain to WAS 9 for 9 yards.