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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 38

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to NYG 3, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-11-C.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.76 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 38, worth -2.07 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 47, worth -2.77 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP