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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 16

New York Giants 7 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-J.Fromm pass deep middle intended for 84-D.Sills INTERCEPTED by 20-B.McCain at WAS 0. 20-B.McCain to WAS 9 for 9 yards.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.74 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +2.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.03 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth +0.02 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.63 EP