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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to WAS 20, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 1-D.Carter to WAS 23 for 3 yards (20-J.Love; 31-K.Crossen).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.53 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 69, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 27, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model