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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 37

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(5:53) 5-T.Way punts 23 yards to NYG 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 81-A.Bachman.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.05 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP