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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 25

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(:03) 3-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.70 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 25, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model